Probability of teams surviving CL group stage.

Current format (two teams out of four qualifying), since 1999-2000.

100% Real Madrid
93,3% Arsenal
92,9% Barcelona
92,3% Milan
90,9% Chelsea
90,0% Inter
86,7% Man United
85,7% Roma
83,3% Lyon
75,0% FC Porto, Liverpool
71,4% Leverkusen, Bayern
70,0% Juventus
66,7% Valencia
50,0% Dortmund, Galatasaray, Sparta Prague
42,9% Panathinaikos
37,5% Celtic
33,3% Werder Bremen, CSKA, Benfica
30,0% PSV
25,0% Ajax
23,1% Olympiakos
14,3% Rosenborg, Rangers, Spartak Moscow
12,5% Anderlecht
11,1% Shakhtar
9,1% D. Kiev

Per nation
85,7% England
81,0% Spain
76,5% Italy
65,1% Germany
53,7% France
50,0% Portugal
31,8% Russia
26,7% Scotland
26,3% Turkey
26,1% Greece
24,0% Holland
10,0% Ukraine
7,1% Belgium
other nations: 14,3%

Per city
94,4% Madrid
92,9% London
91,3% Milan
77,8% Manchester
66,7% Rome 
42,9% Prague
31,2% Moscow
30,0% Lisbon
29,4% Istanbul
26,7% Glasgow
26,1% Athens